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Town of Erie Grows 40%, Town Infrastructure 7.5 Years Behind Forecast of 16% - 2015 to 2020
Andrew Sawusch • January 17, 2020
With a 40% actual population growth rate, compared to the Town's 16% forecast, the Town of Erie's infrastructure will be 7.5 years behind its current growth, and have received by the end of 2020 what it believed to be 12.5 years of population growth in just 5 years - straining the Town's infrastructure and leading to capacity concerns by major utility providers
Every 5 years, the Town of Erie updates their Comprehensive Plan to reflect changes within the town. Within the report, they will forecast the population trends, which are then used by the Town to predict where resources are needed in the future, as well as the projects that will need to be undertaken. Having been previously updated in 2015, and expected to undergo a revision this year in 2020, there was one item that stood out to me more than anything. Now, I know that the town should be
constantly monitoring this information yearly, but I have not seen anything to the effect.
Way down in the report, almost at the very end, in Appendix A, page A-7, Table 3, it shows the "Household and Population Projections - 2015-2035":
Reviewing this table, it appears that the town estimates that there are approximately 2.878 residents per dwelling unit, which results in the "Total Population" column seen. As well, the average estimated growth rate was forecast to be approximately 15.93% within each 5 year period. However, the total number of dwellings appears to be very low compared to actual totals previously reported.
Evaluating the yearly "Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports"
for the years 2015 through 2018 available on the Town's website, the total "# of Dwellings" can be updated to reflect the actual number of residential construction permits issued by the town in those given years. Since the 2019 annual report has not been issued, the "2019 Budget 2nd Supplemental Appropriation" can be used, and for 2020, the "2020 Budget"
adopted by the Trustees on October 22nd of this previous year. The "projected number of permits" to be issued for both of these years provide the best estimates in terms of coming up with the actual number of dwellings for these years. For the 2020 year, the amount is the total of single-family dwellings estimated, which does not include the 150 additional estimated multi-family or high-occupancy residential dwelling units that will be part of the Nine Mile project. For the subsequent years after 2020, the same estimated growth rate of approximately 15.93% can be maintained that was used in the Comprehensive Plan's forecasting. The totals are staggering:
The results, as seen in the above table, indicate that by the end of this year, the Town will have greatly exceeded the estimated growth rate that they predicted for 2015 to 2020, with an actual growth rate or 37.52%. Adding in the additional 150 dwelling units from the Nine Mile project's multi-family high-occupancy residential dwellings, this number further increases to a growth rate of just under 40% in 5 years time.
Here is what this means: the growth rate of 39.47% is not only 2.5x their original forecast projections of 15.93%. It means that the town will have received what it forecast to be a 12.5 year population increase in just 5 years. Since this comprehensive plan is the blueprint for the Town's future endeavors, this means that the town is currently 7.5 years behind
where they need to be.
This quick, rapid-paced growth strains our infrastructure. The first sign are choke points that begin to occur at key defined "Community Gateways" listed on the Town's Zoning Map. Because roads are not widened or redesigned in time, this leads to a larger volume of vehicles on the road, more traffic and congestion, and increased wait times at traffic lights. This then leads to a decreased life expectancy in terms of the roadways themselves, since more vehicles are traveling on them than initially expected. All of this can be seen on a daily basis by residents, as we have to sit sometimes up to 15 minutes at traffic lights, sometimes through 3 complete cycles, just to enter CO-7 and US-287.
Next, there becomes longer than needed wait times for essential services, such as police, fire and rescue, and other Town services. Due to the larger than anticipated volume of residents, as well as the ever-increasing development applications within the Town, Town staff become inundated with requests, slowing the amount of time from application to acceptance. These types of events have already occurred, as noted in the Town's News Flash
regarding the home invasion back in September. Although the police were contacted due to some suspicious activity just blocks away from where the armed robbery and kidnapping occurred, officers were unable to respond in a timely manner simply because there weren't any officers available due to their smaller than needed staff.
After this, there begins to be further depletion of our water and sewer infrastructure. Due to the increased demand, the life expectancy decreases for specific elements within our water supply distribution system, as well as our water treatment facility, creating the need for large capital expenditures to repair or replace the components. This was noted as occurring in an April 2019 Times-Call article, which noted that in 2017, Erie's North Water Reclamation Facility (wastewater) "hit about 81% capacity... By 2020, that number is expected to hit 95%." While the current expansion project is scheduled to take a few years, the article goes further on to say that "the facility's liquid capacity would be exceeded by 2021", meaning there is the potential that the project will not be completed in time prior to reaching the system's maximum capacity limit. Additionally, the 2020 Budget has a line item for the request of a new "Turbine at Water Treatment Facility - $1.8 million." This is surprising, considering most of the large components of a water treatment facility have an expected lifespan of approximately 25 years, but the Town now needs to replace the current turbine only after 15 years from when the facility was expanded between 2005 and 2007.
Finally, it leads to other major public utility providers being near or at capacity. Xcel has been the first provider to note this problem, specifically within Old Town. They have said that the capacity issue has reached a point where if something is not done within the next 12-18 months, businesses and residents here will have lower-than-necessary pressure levels for such things as hot water and heating. Only because Xcel came to the town with this issue did the Town of Erie decide to start the process of moving forward, as indicated by the "Infrastructure Improvement Study for Old Town" approved by the Board of Trustees during the January 14th Board Meeting (resolution 20-014).
These reasons, and the information presented earlier, indicate why Forward Thinking is needed now on the Board of Trustees, and why my largest single campaign Issue Item
of concern is Manageable Growth and Sustainable Infrastructure.
*Just a side note to all of the items that I discuss: I am a solutions driven problem solver by nature. I wonder how things work, why they work the way they do, and how to make them better. This means seeking different, outside-the-box methods to figure out solutions to various issues. Accordingly, I am always open to learning new ideas, different ways of doing things, as well as constantly learning from others' experiences to make better decisions. When I see an issue, I view it in a holistic fashion, and then dive into specific areas to remove deficiencies and create efficiencies. If you, who are reading this, have some thoughts or ideas about any of the subjects I discuss, I would be more than happy to speak with you to hear your opinions. Listening, hearing, and understanding different perspectives is the only way that we can all grow and create positive change - by learning from others, and delivering ideas that push the needle to become Forward Thinking.
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Projected to be depleted by 2027, Erie's finance team forecasts the Town's Capital Fund to only have $2.5million available for capital projects (after $4million Street Maintenance) from 2027 through 2029 — due to overspending caused by operational and capital expenses exceeding the growth of revenues
While some call it an "Affordable Housing" issue, in reality the root of the problem is a lack of housing diversity. During the Town's massive growth over the years, a lack of available inventory and the national housing market have created a housing affordability issue as the Town's makeup has comprised almost entirely of single family homes. The best way to resolve this issue is to work with our stakeholders in the community - our development partners - to address the cause, not the symptoms of the issue.
Erie has quickly moved from "the best kept secret" to "the gem of North Metro Denver", becoming a destination that others want to call home. In order to set our Town up for the best chances for success, a plan must be created that provides us with an ability to manage our current and future growth.
The blueprint below is designed to do just that, providing an understanding of where we are now (our "Current Position"), where we are going (our "Upcoming Needs"), and where we want to be (our "Future Growth"). It starts with assessing what's needed at this moment, preparing for what's needed later, and then having a vision to plan for the future.
Tell us briefly about yourself and where you are from and why you think you're a good candidate for the position you are running for: Originally from the Chicagoland area, I have been a resident of Erie since 2016, previously a resident of Broomfield for 7 years. I graduated from CU Boulder in 2009, with a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration with dual concentrations in Management and Marketing. I am a business operations and marketing professional, with experience growing businesses from the ground up. Currently, I serve as the Sr. Manager of Customer Operations for a data analytics software company. As a solutions-driven individual, I use a holistic-view approach to identify and resolve issues that deliver results, which are both effective and efficient. I am married to my amazing wife, Gabrielle, and am the doting father of my two husky fur-babies, Kaia and Koda. I currently serve as both a Planning Commissioner and a Comprehensive Plan Amendment Steering Committee member for the Town. As an individual from the business world, I believe the Town needs leaders who can create solutions that will be positive and Forward Thinking for Erie’s Future. I believe that I am a good candidate for the position of Trustee because I am committed to making Erie the thriving and sought-after place to live, work, and raise a family - the place we love to call "home"!
I have recently been asked my stance on the Town's current face coverings order. This is an issue which by now, I am sure we have all formed our own personal opinions on. Since 2020, it has affected our daily lives and has been a “hot topic” locally, nationally, and world-wide. It has created division between families, friends, neighbors, communities, and nations alike – and likewise, Erie too has also seen its fair-share of division surrounding the subject. Personally, I abide by the orders issued by a county’s Public Health Agency, as their respective agency has final-say on the specific orders currently in place within their respective boundaries. As well, I abide by the requests and policies of a business which may not be under a mask mandate, but request that patrons within their establishment wear one. However, as I will go into further, the current Town of Erie Face Covering order is in actuality an overreach of legal authority applied to the Weld County side - due to Erie not having its own Public Health Agency, and due to Public Health order which was referenced in the Town's order being from the Boulder County Health Department. The decision made by the Board of Trustees and Town Administrator to administer this upon those in Weld County has not only hurt our businesses, but it has as well placed our Erie Police Department in a situation which they have no option but to enforce the order. The Erie Face Coverings Mandate Erie is uniquely situated in a location where we are split between two counties, with each county having differing views when it comes to various topics – and COVID has been no different. Statutorily, CRS §31-15-103 notes that the Town has the power to issue ordinances “which are necessary and proper to provide for the safety, preserve the health” of the Town’s residents. As well, we are statutorily provided with the authority to create our own Board of Health, as described in CRS §31-15-201 (1) (c), as well additionally in CRS §25-1-507 which notes:
First off, this issue has nothing to do with the capabilities of our Town's current Finance team. I am in no way, shape, or form "throwing them under the bus." I think they are doing a fabulous job, and are making amazing strides in rectifying many issues that they ultimately inherited. These issues should have been found out sooner, and lies entirely and squarely on the shoulders of previous Board of Trustees, as well as our Town Administrators. These individuals are the leaders within Town Hall. They are the individuals who are either our elected, or appointed by those elected, to be Stewards of our Town's finances. Our next board must contain individuals who understand the Town's budgets and finances, who review them thoroughly - as well as those who provide scrutiny, ask questions, and request clarification on these items (and others) from Staff. As someone who believes that our Town's Financial Wherewithal is an extremely important topic for our Town's future success, and having identified this issue in 2020 , I am disappointed in our Town's leadership for placing this situation upon our Town's Finance department. I am providing this information because of the opaque nature in which our Town has acted with in years past. I am also providing this information because there are many more issues that these individuals are attempting to rectify at this very moment, some that might take a year or two to finally be able to accomplish, as well as to say to our Town's Finance Department (Stephanie and Candice - and Victoria who just left as well) "Thank you for all that you are doing to illuminate and resolve these issues for our Town!" Backstory After my last article regarding the Town's 2022 Budget and the changes made within, another Trustee Candidate and myself were discussing the Town's budget online, referencing both the Town's Comprehensive Annual Financial Report's and Monthly Financial Reports in our comments. Less than a week later, I noticed that the Monthly Financials were removed from the Town's website. I decided to post on my Candidate Page about this in jest, and tagged the Town's official Facebook account - assuming that I wouldn't actually receive a response about it.
The General Fund is the primary operating fund for the Town. This single account is where all revenues and expenses are allocated relating to Town Administration, Legal, Legislative, Parks and Recreation, Public Works, Finance, Economic Development, Communications and Community Engagement, HR, IT, Public Safety, and Central Charges (ie. Debt and Transfers to other funds). The revenues that fund this account results from our sales taxes, property taxes, development related fees, recreation fees, landfill fees, oil and gas related income, and other miscellaneous sources. Adopted by the Board of Trustees in November, this year’s budget was prepared for the first time in over 10 years by someone other than our previous Finance Director. The 2022 General Fund Budget projects a total of approximately $42.6 million in revenues for the Town. This is an increase from approximately $36.1 million in 2021, for a year-over-year growth of $6.5 million or 18%. At first glance this might look great, but the Budget then continues to explain that this double-digit growth is largely just a result of an “accounting change.”
As we all practice social-distancing and isolation due to COVID-19, what happens when we run out of activities to do around the house? Below are many different items - ALL COMPLETELY FREE - including educational materials for children, books, music, and virtual activities, in order to continue learning or simply pass the time. Have more items to add to the list? Send me a message here or on Facebook . (I will continue adding to the list as additional suggestions come in - but remember, they must be FREE!) ACTIVITIES Fitness 1440 - Erie Virtual training for its members on their Facebook page, to help stay mentally and physically active (On-Demand FREE for current members, Facebook video classes also posted for current and non-members) (just a side note: you can still also purchase their smoothies, picking them up curbside from 10am-12pm, by texting or messaging your order to them!) https://www.facebook.com/fitness1440erieco/ Virtual Field Trips Take a virtual trip to locations arround the world: View exhibits from The Louvre Museum in Paris, the Anne Frank House in Amsterdam, explore the surface of Mars, and more http://freedomhomeschooling.com/virtual-field-trips/ Virtual Disney World Rides Even though the Disney parks are closed, you can still ride their rides virtually online https://www.wesh.com/article/virtual-disney-world-rides/31782946 Paris Musées Virtual Exhibit Collection of 150,000 digital art reproductions in High Definition of works in the City’s museums http://parismuseescollections.paris.fr/en GoNoodle Movement and mindfulness videos created by child development experts https://www.gonoodle.com/ CHILDREN'S EDUCATIONAL MATERIALS - GAMES, LEARNING, & VIDEOS Khan Academy Expert-created content and resources for every course and level (requires sign-up) https://www.khanacademy.org/ Newsela content from the world's most trusted providers and turn it into learning materials that are classroom-ready https://newsela.com/ XtraMath Program that helps students master addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division facts https://xtramath.org/ Teachers Pay Teachers Online marketplace for original educational resources with more than four million resources available for use (requires sign-up) https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/ Create Printables Variety of worksheets and printables ideas to personalize for your child https://www.createprintables.com/ PBS Kids Educational games and videos from Curious George, Wild Kratts and other PBS KIDS shows https://pbskids.org/ Sesame Street Play educational games, watch videos, and create art with Elmo, Cookie Monster, Abby Cadabby, Big Bird, and more of your favorite Sesame Street muppets https://www.sesamestreet.org/ Education.com A library of games, activities, educational worksheets, and lesson plans for PK-5th, curated by educators (requires sign-up) https://www.education.com/ BrainPOP Animated Educational Site for Kids - Science, Social Studies, English, Math, Arts & Music, Health, and Technology https://www.brainpop.com/ (Normally this is a paid subscription service, but they are offering free subscriptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic) Starfall Allowing children to have fun while they learn - specializing in reading, phonics & math - educational games, movies, books, songs, and more for children K-3 https://www.starfall.com/ BOOKS (KIDS AND ADULTS) Magic Blox Offers a large library of free online books & children's stories https://magicblox.com/ Epic! Digital library for kids offering unlimited access to 35000 of the best children's books of all time (30-day free trial available) https://www.getepic.com/ Open Library Collection of books from the Library of Congress, other libraries, and Amazon.com, as well as other contributors https://openlibrary.org/ Project Gutenberg Library of over 60,000 eBooks, including free epub and Kindle eBooks, download them or read them online https://www.gutenberg.org/ TV & MOVIES Tubi Stream and watch movies and TV shows online in HD on any device https://tubitv.com/ Pluto TV Watch 250+ channels of TV and 1000's of on-demand movies and TV shows https://pluto.tv/ MUSIC Spotify Digital music service that gives you access to millions of songs https://www.spotify.com/us/free/ Pandora Music streaming and automated music recommendation internet radio service https://www.pandora.com/ TuneIn Radio Internet radio, sports, music, news, talk and podcasts https://tunein.com/
Current and previous leaders have not addressed the items which they said they would. As a resident, I am tired of seeing Erie's potential squandered. That is why I am saying "no more!", and why I am running for Trustee. This is why I will focus on the most pertinent issues that I see, as well as the items that are most important to you, the Town's residents
Please be sure to support my campaign for trustee by getting involved in a few different ways ( click here to see how )!